A data science showcase
Will Millwall win the Championship?
One honest number, built up in four steps, from a coin-flip prior to a full season simulation. This is a teaching tool, not a betting tip.
0.7%
Win the title (1st)
Recent results weighted higher through an Elo-style update, then 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season. This is the headline number.
0.7%
Win the title (1st)
2.5%
Automatic promotion (top 2)
21.3%
Playoffs or better (top 6)
Where Millwall finish (simulated)
1st24th
Championship table
| Pos | Team | Pl | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham United FC | 7 | 11 | 14 |
| 2 | Southampton FC | 7 | 10 | 14 |
| 3 | Swansea City AFC | 7 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough FC | 7 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | West Bromwich Albion FC | 7 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Queens Park Rangers FC | 7 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Charlton Athletic FC | 7 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Wolverhampton Wanderers FC | 6 | 4 | 11 |
| 9 | Lincoln City FC | 7 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Birmingham City FC | 7 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Millwall FC | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Stoke City FC | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Bristol City FC | 7 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | Norwich City FC | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 15 | Sheffield United FC | 7 | -1 | 9 |
| 16 | Blackburn Rovers FC | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 17 | Watford FC | 7 | -2 | 8 |
| 18 | Portsmouth FC | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 19 | Wrexham AFC | 7 | -4 | 7 |
| 20 | Bolton Wanderers FC | 7 | -5 | 7 |
| 21 | Cardiff City FC | 7 | -4 | 4 |
| 22 | Derby County FC | 7 | -7 | 4 |
| 23 | Preston North End FC | 7 | -7 | 3 |
| 24 | Burnley FC | 7 | -8 | 3 |
Data: 17/09/2026 · 2026/20261 · 83 played
Fixtures, results and standings from football-data.org. Goals-based model (rich expected-goals data is not freely available for the Championship). Not affiliated with Millwall FC.